Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
